A Future Unwritten: Short & Long Term Impacts of AI on Economy, Products and Life
From Economic Models to Human Behavior
In the early stages of my career, I immersed myself in economic modeling. I authored a 300-page briefing for the UN, only to watch the Russian economy collapse in 1998, shattering my confidence in purely quantitative approaches. This failure redirected my curiosity toward anthropology—toward understanding how culture and human behavior, not just numbers, shape economies and societies.
Human-Centered Innovation
When I joined IDEO, I wasn't a designer—I was an anthropologist. But the launch of the iPhone transformed how humans interacted with technology. I realized quickly: successful digital products weren’t about aesthetics alone, but about deep empathy and understanding of human needs. This ethos guided my work at Salesforce, where shadowing salespeople revealed unmet needs our CRM tools had ignored.
The AI Dilemma: Cost Savings vs. Empathy
Today, many companies adopt generative AI for cost-cutting, not value creation. This short-term mindset leads to layoffs, erodes customer bases, and accelerates economic downturns. We forget: the laid-off customer support agent is also a consumer—of your product, or your client’s. It’s a race to the bottom that benefits no one.
AI as a Tool, Not a Goal
AI should enhance human experiences, not replace them. I’ve seen leaders use tools like ChatGPT to automate tasks and build MVPs. While this is impressive, it risks reducing opportunities for entry-level roles. The key lies in redefining work—moving from knowledge production to human development and connection.
Redefining Intelligence
We must rethink what it means to be intelligent. Logic, memory, and computation are now AI’s strengths. Our strength? Sentience. Emotional intelligence. Spirituality. Empathy. These are irreplicable by machines and should be our compass in this age of AI.
Scenarios for the Future
As a scenario planner, I consider four possible futures:
- Augmented Humans: Co-pilots for every task.
- Displacement: Rapid loss of knowledge jobs.
- Human Beings as Pets: Trained and manipulated by AI through our tech interfaces.
- Total Erasure: AI deems humans unnecessary.
While all are plausible, the third seems most imminent. We’re becoming dependent on AI-driven filters to interact with one another—like dogs trained by humans.
Infinite Games and Human Purpose
The question is not whether AI can help us reach our goals. It’s whether those goals are worth reaching if we lose our humanity. As humans, we thrive in infinite games—building, connecting, evolving. Let’s build an AI future that respects that principle.
Conclusion
AI offers unprecedented potential, but only if wielded wisely. Let us lead with empathy, prioritize human connection, and remember: technology must serve humanity, not the other way around.